Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (2024)

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A new set of Times/Siena polls, including one with The Philadelphia Inquirer, reveal an erosion of support for the president among young and nonwhite voters upset about the economy and Gaza.

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Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (1)

THE NEW YORK TIMES

THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER

SIENA COLLEGE POLL

April 28 to May 9

If the 2024 presidential election

were held today, who would you

vote for if the candidates were

Joe Biden and Donald Trump?

Trump

45%

Biden

47%

Wisconsin

44

47

Pennsylvania

42

49

Arizona

42

49

Michigan

39

49

Georgia

38

50

Nevada

Margin of error

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (2)

THE NEW YORK TIMES

THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER

SIENA COLLEGE POLL

April 28 to May 9

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidateswere Joe Biden and Donald Trump?

Trump

45%

Biden

47%

Wisconsin

44

47

Pennsylvania

42

49

Arizona

42

49

Michigan

39

49

Georgia

38

50

Nevada

Margin of error

By Nate Cohn

Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.

The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.

[You can find the full results of the polls, including the exact questions that were asked, here. You can see answers to common questions about our polling process here.]

The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.

The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.

Image

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (4)

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (5)

How support for the candidates differ

between registered and likely voters

Registered

voters

Likely

voters

Biden

Difference

Arizona

42%

43%

+1

Georgia

39

41

+2

Michigan

42

47

+5

Nevada

38

38

+1

Pennsylvania

44

45

+1

Wisconsin

47

46

–1

Registered

voters

Likely

voters

Trump

Difference

Arizona

49%

49%

+1

Georgia

49

50

+2

Michigan

49

46

–4

Nevada

50

51

+2

Pennsylvania

47

48

+1

Wisconsin

45

47

+2

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (6)

How support for the candidates differ

between registered and likely voters

Registered

voters

Likely

voters

Biden

Difference

42%

43%

+1

Arizona

39

41

+2

Georgia

42

47

+5

Michigan

38

38

+1

Nevada

44

45

+1

Pennsylvania

47

46

–1

Wisconsin

Registered

voters

Likely

voters

Trump

Difference

49%

49%

Arizona

+1

49

50

Georgia

+2

49

46

Michigan

–4

50

51

+2

Nevada

47

48

+1

Pennsylvania

45

47

+2

Wisconsin

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (7)

Most Americans think the system

needs to change …

Which comes closest to your view about

the political and economic system in America,

even if none are exactly right?

The system needs ...

... no changes 2%

... to be

torn down

entirely

... major

changes

... minor

changes

14%

55%

27%

Don’t know/

declined to say 2%

… and they think that Donald Trump

would bring more change …

If [this candidate] won the election, do you think

nothing would change, there would be minor

changes to how things work, there would be

major changes to how things work, or he would

tear down the system completely?

Tear down

system

entirely

Nothing

would change

Minor changes

13%

11%

39%

32%

Biden

Major

changes

Don’t know/

declined to say 4%

3%

25%

45%

23%

Trump

4%

… but they are split on whether that

change would be good or bad.

Do you think the changes that [this candidate]

would make would be good for the country

or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

Somewhat

or very good

Somewhat

or very bad

Nothing

would change

24%

15%

23%

32%

Biden

Neither

Don’t know/

declined to say 5%

5%

43%

12%

35%

Trump

4%

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (8)

Most Americans think the system needs to change …

Which comes closest to your view about the political and economic

system in America, even if none are exactly right?

The system needs ...

... to be

torn down

entirely

... no changes 2%

... major changes

... minor changes

14%

55%

27%

Don’t know/

declined to say 2%

… and they think that Donald Trump would bring more change …

If [this candidate] won the election, do you think nothing would change,

there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major

changes to how things work, or he would tear down the system completely?

Tear down

system

entirely

Nothing

would change

Minor changes

13%

11%

39%

32%

Biden

Major

changes

Don’t know/

declined to say 4%

25%

45%

23%

Trump

4%

3%

… but they are split on whether that change would be good or bad.

Do you think the changes that [this candidate] would make would be good

for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

Somewhat

or very good

Somewhat

or very bad

Nothing

would change

Neither

24%

15%

23%

32%

Biden

Don’t know/

declined to say 5%

43%

12%

35%

Trump

4%

5%

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Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (2024)

FAQs

Which are the swing states? ›

Trump would beat Biden 37% to 35% overall in the seven swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada), according to the Ipsos poll released Thursday, which breaks down the results by region and gave voters the option of choosing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (6%), another ...

Who's leading the polls for president in 2024? ›

President: general election, 2024 AVG.
June 14-1610,132Biden 44% Trump 43%
June 12930Biden 39% Trump 41%
June 11-121,141Biden 41% Trump 40% Kennedy 7%
June 10-121,184Biden 41% Trump 42% Kennedy 11% West 3% Stein 1% Oliver 1%
June 10-121,184Biden 49% Trump 49%
15 more rows

What are the swing states in 2024? ›

For the 2024 election, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are crucial battleground states that both Democrats and Republicans need to win to secure the 270 electoral votes required for the presidency.

What years did Donald Trump serve? ›

Donald Trump
Official portrait, 2017
45th President of the United States
In office January 20, 2017 – January 20, 2021
Vice PresidentMike Pence
19 more rows

Why is it called a swing state? ›

In American politics, a swing state (also known as battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes.

Is Wisconsin a blue or red state? ›

Since 1988, Wisconsin has leaned towards the Democratic Party in presidential elections, although Republican Donald Trump won the state by a margin of 0.77 percentage points.

Is Las Vegas in the swing state? ›

Nevada is No. 33 in U.S. News' 2024 Best States rankings. Nevada, a diverse southwestern state home to “Sin City,” or Las Vegas, is a more traditional example of a swing state.

Is Maine a democratic state? ›

Although today Maine is considered somewhat Democratic in presidential elections having voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992.

Who is on track to win the presidential election in 2024? ›

What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
DatesPollster SponsorResult
June 12Ipsos ReutersBiden 37% 38% Trump
June 10-12Marist College NPR, PBS NewsHourBiden 41% 42% Trump
June 11-12Redfield & Wilton StrategiesBiden 41% 40% Trump
June 10-12Echelon InsightsBiden 42% 43% Trump
6 more rows
4 days ago

What do Republicans believe in? ›

The Republican Party since the 1920's has adhered to an ideology of fiscal conservatism. Republicans strongly believe that free markets and individual achievement are the primary factors behind economic prosperity.

Who was the youngest president of the US? ›

Age of presidents

The median age at inauguration of incoming U.S. presidents is 55 years. The youngest person to become U.S. president was Theodore Roosevelt, who, at age 42, succeeded to the office after the assassination of William McKinley. The oldest person inaugurated president was Joe Biden, at age 78.

What are three facts about Donald Trump? ›

Donald Trump served as the 45th president of the United States (2017–21). He was the third president in U.S. history to be impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives and the only president to be impeached twice—once in 2019 (he was acquitted by the U.S. Senate in 2020) and once in 2021.

Is Alaska a swing state? ›

Despite not being a swing state, Alaska was one of the last states to be called; the state did not start counting absentee ballots or early votes that were cast after October 29 until November 10. Mail-in votes only had to be received by November 13 for them to be counted, and counting had to be completed by November ...

Is Oklahoma a swing state? ›

Oklahoma is currently categorized politically as conservative. The state has a history of Democratic state government dominance.

What political party is Missouri? ›

Both of Missouri's U.S. Senate seats have been held by Republicans since 2019.

Why did the Founding Fathers created the Electoral College? ›

The Electoral College is a process, not a place. The Founding Fathers established it in the Constitution, in part, as a compromise between the election of the President by a vote in Congress and election of the President by a popular vote of qualified citizens.

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